We jointly evaluate the ability of consensus beliefs about long-term earnings growth and analyst disagreement to predict stock market returns. We bridge the gap between the strands of literature testing theories of belief extrapolation and disagreement-fueled overpricing. Using IBES analyst forecast data from 1982-2022 and conducting both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses, we find limited evidence that these measures of subjective beliefs predict returns. Our analyses across specifications and sample periods highlight the fragility of prior findings after including relevant controls or extending sample periods.
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