Non-Gaussian Stochastic Volatility Models - Laplace-Variational Bayes Inference

  • Author
  • João Pedro Coli de Souza M. Nacinben
  • Co-authors
  • Márcio Poletti Laurini
  • Abstract
  • Stochastic volatility models are fundamental tools in finance for accurately estimating and managing risks, primarily due to their ability to accommodate a dynamic and time-varying volatility structure. However, a notable constraint within these models is the reliance on Gaussian processes to model the latent (log-)variance, which can limit their ability to effectively capture events such as sudden jumps or spikes in the latent volatility. To address this limitation, we employ a non-Gaussian SV model utilizing an inference procedure that combines Laplace and Variational Bayes approximations. Our study showcases the significant advantages of this correction in modeling the conditional variance of Bitcoin's return series.

  • Keywords
  • Conditional volatility, financial risks, jumps, Variational inference.
  • Modality
  • Comunicação oral
  • Subject Area
  • Econometria Financeira (Financial Econometrics)
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  • Apreçamento de Ativos (Asset Pricing)
  • Finanças Corporativas e Bancárias (Corporate Finance and Banking)
  • Econometria Financeira (Financial Econometrics)
  • Engenharia Financeira (Financial Engineering)
  • Macrofinanças (Macrofinance)