Policy Uncertainty and Asset Pricing

  • Author
  • Brenno Sá Gonçalves
  • Co-authors
  • Rafael Vetromille
  • Abstract
  • This paper aims to empirically examine the relationship between EPU and asset prices, with a specific focus on exploring the existence of a negative (or positive) risk premium associated with this factor. We find that firms with lower EPU beta, indicating a lower correlation to economic policy uncertainty, exhibit, on average, higher excess returns compared to their counterparts with higher exposure to EPU. Moreover, we find that a portfolio long on stocks that have low EPU Beta and short on stocks with high IIE beta, generate risk-adjusted return of 0.85% per month or almost 10.7% per year, controlling for market, size, book-to-market and momentum. We also find negative and significant alphas for the equal and value-weighted portfolios and a positive and significant risk premium. 

  • Keywords
  • Asset pricing, Political uncertainty, Cross-section of stock returns, Risk premium
  • Modality
  • Comunicação oral
  • Subject Area
  • Apreçamento de Ativos (Asset Pricing)
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  • Apreçamento de Ativos (Asset Pricing)
  • Finanças Corporativas e Bancárias (Corporate Finance and Banking)
  • Econometria Financeira (Financial Econometrics)
  • Engenharia Financeira (Financial Engineering)
  • Macrofinanças (Macrofinance)