We investigate the collective dynamics of financial markets through the lens of phase
transitions and synchronization in complex networks. Using a system of 29 global assets
categorized into risk and safe-haven clusters, we apply the Hilbert Transform to extract
instantaneous phases and compute the Kuramoto order parameter (R) alongside a novel
Chimera Index (H). Our results reveal that systemic crises, such as the 2008 Subprime
collapse and the 2020 pandemic, are characterized by a forced phase condensation where
synchronization is driven by volatility (?R/?? > 0), leading to a “Systemic Amalgam” state.
Conversely, geopolitical shifts like the 2016 and 2024 U.S. elections trigger “Chimera States”,
marked by the coexistence of synchronized and desynchronized subpopulations. By mapping
these transitions onto a Landau free-energy potential, we demonstrate that the Chimera state
serves as a meta-stable precursor to symmetry breaking. This thermodynamic framework
provides a robust early-warning signal for systemic risk, identifying structural fragility before
global diversification collapses.
Comissão Organizadora
Comissão Científica