Vine Copula and EVT Jittering for Operational Risk Capital

  • Autor
  • Christiano Monteiro Borges Lopes
  • Co-autores
  • Andre Nunes Maranhão , Benjamim Miranda Tabak
  • Resumo
  • Operational risk quantification traditionally assumes independence across categories, underestimating stress-period losses. We challenge this paradigm by developing a unified framework addressing discrete-continuous loss data, heavy-tailed severity, and complex risk dependence. Analyzing 1.99 million operational loss events from a major Brazilian bank (2020–2024), we combine Extreme Value Theory (EVT) for severity tails, spliced distributions, and Regular Vine (R-Vine) copulas with jittering for frequency dependence. Our results show dependence increases economic capital at the 99.9% level by 42.87% over five years. Backtesting reveals the independence model systematically fails during stress periods, while the Vine copula model maintains coverage. These findings confirm that presumed diversification benefits are often illusory, though negative dependencies can occasionally reduce aggregate risk.

  • Palavras-chave
  • Operational Risk, Economic Capital, Vine Copulas, Extreme Value Theory, Jittering, Spliced Distributions, Dependence Modeling
  • Modalidade
  • Comunicação oral
  • Área Temática
  • Econometria Financeira
Voltar Download
  • Apreçamento de Ativos
  • Finanças Corporativas e Bancárias
  • Econometria Financeira
  • Engenharia Financeira
  • Macrofinanças
  • Econometria Financeira

Comissão Organizadora

  • Anderson Odias da Silva
  • Rafael Schiozer
  • Marcelo Fernandes
     

Comissão Científica

  • Alan De Genaro (FGV EAESP)
  • Allisson Martins (Universidade de Fortaleza)
  • Amanda Miranda Fantinatti (FEA-USP)
  • André de Castro Silva (Nova SBE)
  • Benjamin Miranda Tabak (FGV EPPGE)
  • Bernardo Ricca (Insper)
  • Bruno Cara Giovannetti (FGV EESP)
  • Caio Almeida (Princeton)
  • Claudia Yoshinaga (FGV EAESP)
  • Cristina Scherrer (LSE)
  • Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia (FED)
  • Eduardo Flores (FEA-USP)
  • Eduardo Horta (UFRGS)
  • Eduardo Kazuo Kayo (FEA-USP)
  • Emerson Fernandes Marçal (FGV EESP)
  • Fernando Chague (FGV EESP)
  • Flavio Augusto Ziegelmann (UFRGS)
  • Gustavo Freire (Nova SBE)
  • Gustavo Silva Araujo (BCB)
  • Henrique Castro (FGV EESP)
  • Henrique Castro Martins (FGV EAESP)
  • Jaime de Jesus Filho (FGV)
  • Jose Renato Haas Ornelas (BCB)
  • João F. Caldeira (UFSC)
  • Jéfferson Augusto Colombo (FGV EESP)
  • Klenio Barbosa (SKEMA)
  • Layla Mendes (FGV EBAPE)
  • Leandro dos Santos Maciel (FEA-USP)
  • Lucas Ayres Barreira de Campos Barros (FEA-USP)
  • Marcelo Brutti Righi (UFRGS)
  • Marcelo Fernandes (FGV EESP)
  • Marcelo Klötzle (PUC-Rio)
  • Mariana Oreng (ESPM)
  • Márcio Poletti Laurini (FEA-RP/USP)
  • Naielly Marques (PUC-Rio)
  • Paulo Renato Soares Terra (FGV EAESP)
  • Paulo Rogério Faustino de Matos (UFC)
  • Pedro A. C. Saffi (CUNEF)
  • Rafael Felipe Schiozer (FGV EAESP)
  • Rafael Matta (SKEMA)
  • Raquel de Freitas Oliveira (BCB)
  • Raul Riva (FGV EPGE)
  • Roberto Bomgiovani Cazzari (FEA-USP)
  • Rodrigo De Losso da Silveira Bueno (FEA-USP)
  • Rodrigo Leite (COPPEAD/UFRJ)
  • Ruy Monteiro Ribeiro (Insper)
  • Vinicius Augusto Brunassi Silva (FGV EESP)
  • Wilson Toshiro Nakamura (Mackenzie)
  • Yuri Fahham Saporito (FGV EMAp)