Fast Bayesian Estimation of Rough Stochastic Volatility Models

  • Autor
  • João Pedro Coli de Souza Monteneri Nacinben
  • Co-autores
  • Márcio Poletti Laurini
  • Resumo
  • We develop efficient computational methods for the Bayesian estimation of rough stochastic volatility (RSV) models. To address the computational challenges associated with large covariance matrices in rough volatility models, we investigate several covariance factorization strategies for likelihood evaluation. Monte Carlo experiments reveal a clear trade-off between numerical accuracy and computational efficiency. While Cholesky-based methods deliver higher accuracy, the FFT embedding approach provides substantial computational speedups with minimal precision loss, and GPU acceleration significantly reduces runtime for recursion-based algorithms. We apply our framework to the S&P 500 returns, the log realized variance of S&P 500 and VIX series. The empirical results confirm the rough nature of equity volatility, though the VIX index exhibits substantially smoother dynamics. Our findings demonstrate that modern numerical linear algebra techniques and GPU-accelerated algorithms make the Bayesian estimation of high-dimensional rough stochastic volatility models computationally feasible.

  • Palavras-chave
  • Rough stochastic volatility, Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations, Fractional Gaussian noise
  • Modalidade
  • Comunicação oral
  • Área Temática
  • Econometria Financeira
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  • Apreçamento de Ativos
  • Finanças Corporativas e Bancárias
  • Econometria Financeira
  • Engenharia Financeira
  • Macrofinanças
  • Econometria Financeira

Comissão Organizadora

  • Anderson Odias da Silva
  • Rafael Schiozer
  • Marcelo Fernandes
     

Comissão Científica

  • Alan De Genaro (FGV EAESP)
  • Allisson Martins (Universidade de Fortaleza)
  • Amanda Miranda Fantinatti (FEA-USP)
  • André de Castro Silva (Nova SBE)
  • Benjamin Miranda Tabak (FGV EPPGE)
  • Bernardo Ricca (Insper)
  • Bruno Cara Giovannetti (FGV EESP)
  • Caio Almeida (Princeton)
  • Claudia Yoshinaga (FGV EAESP)
  • Cristina Scherrer (LSE)
  • Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia (FED)
  • Eduardo Flores (FEA-USP)
  • Eduardo Horta (UFRGS)
  • Eduardo Kazuo Kayo (FEA-USP)
  • Emerson Fernandes Marçal (FGV EESP)
  • Fernando Chague (FGV EESP)
  • Flavio Augusto Ziegelmann (UFRGS)
  • Gustavo Freire (Nova SBE)
  • Gustavo Silva Araujo (BCB)
  • Henrique Castro (FGV EESP)
  • Henrique Castro Martins (FGV EAESP)
  • Jaime de Jesus Filho (FGV)
  • Jose Renato Haas Ornelas (BCB)
  • João F. Caldeira (UFSC)
  • Jéfferson Augusto Colombo (FGV EESP)
  • Klenio Barbosa (SKEMA)
  • Layla Mendes (FGV EBAPE)
  • Leandro dos Santos Maciel (FEA-USP)
  • Lucas Ayres Barreira de Campos Barros (FEA-USP)
  • Marcelo Brutti Righi (UFRGS)
  • Marcelo Fernandes (FGV EESP)
  • Marcelo Klötzle (PUC-Rio)
  • Mariana Oreng (ESPM)
  • Márcio Poletti Laurini (FEA-RP/USP)
  • Naielly Marques (PUC-Rio)
  • Paulo Renato Soares Terra (FGV EAESP)
  • Paulo Rogério Faustino de Matos (UFC)
  • Pedro A. C. Saffi (CUNEF)
  • Rafael Felipe Schiozer (FGV EAESP)
  • Rafael Matta (SKEMA)
  • Raquel de Freitas Oliveira (BCB)
  • Raul Riva (FGV EPGE)
  • Roberto Bomgiovani Cazzari (FEA-USP)
  • Rodrigo De Losso da Silveira Bueno (FEA-USP)
  • Rodrigo Leite (COPPEAD/UFRJ)
  • Ruy Monteiro Ribeiro (Insper)
  • Vinicius Augusto Brunassi Silva (FGV EESP)
  • Wilson Toshiro Nakamura (Mackenzie)
  • Yuri Fahham Saporito (FGV EMAp)