We investigate how the increasing penetration of variable renewable energy sources (VREs) influences the speed at which electricity spot prices revert to equilibrium following weather-driven shocks. Using German spot electricity prices and temperature data, we estimate a continuous-time jump--diffusion model with stochastic mean reversion and exploit the Fukushima accident as a quasi-natural experiment. Our findings show that, in the post-Fukushima period, climate deviations substantially slowed mean reversion, lowered the risk premium, and increased expected shortfall, thereby amplifying exposure to extreme price outcomes. These results suggest that while the expansion of VREs advances decarbonization, it may simultaneously intensify market tail risks unless supported by complementary flexibility measures such as capacity mechanisms and cross-border integration.
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