Sports Gambling in Brazil: Evidence From Real Bets

  • Autor
  • Leonardo Martins Lauro
  • Co-autores
  • Luiz Claudio Ferreira Sacramento Junior
  • Resumo
  • We study the gambling behavior of 1,046 sports bettors on a Brazilian betting platform using real transaction data collected via web-scraping. Unlike most prior work, which relies on laboratory experiments, our dataset captures revealed preferences through actual wagers, odds, and outcomes. We document that the typical bettor places small wagers at high odds and incurs a median return of $-72.35\%$. Fewer than 7.5\% of bettors realize a positive profit, and no individual earns monthly profits exceeding the minimum wage. So, no individual is taxed. Half of new bettors are no longer observed in the platform after 34 bets, yet cumulative losses continue to deepen for those who persist. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that the firm generates approximately R\$0.3 million in monthly taxes. These findings highlight the prevalence of sustained losses among bettors and provide policymakers with evidence on the behavioral dimension of users in the rapidly expanding sports betting market.

  • Palavras-chave
  • gambling, sports betting, revealed preferences, real bets, profit
  • Modalidade
  • Comunicação oral
  • Área Temática
  • Finanças Corporativas e Bancárias
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  • Apreçamento de Ativos
  • Finanças Corporativas e Bancárias
  • Econometria Financeira
  • Engenharia Financeira
  • Macrofinanças
  • Econometria Financeira

Comissão Organizadora

  • Anderson Odias da Silva
  • Rafael Schiozer
  • Marcelo Fernandes
     

Comissão Científica

  • Alan De Genaro (FGV EAESP)
  • Allisson Martins (Universidade de Fortaleza)
  • Amanda Miranda Fantinatti (FEA-USP)
  • André de Castro Silva (Nova SBE)
  • Benjamin Miranda Tabak (FGV EPPGE)
  • Bernardo Ricca (Insper)
  • Bruno Cara Giovannetti (FGV EESP)
  • Caio Almeida (Princeton)
  • Claudia Yoshinaga (FGV EAESP)
  • Cristina Scherrer (LSE)
  • Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia (FED)
  • Eduardo Flores (FEA-USP)
  • Eduardo Horta (UFRGS)
  • Eduardo Kazuo Kayo (FEA-USP)
  • Emerson Fernandes Marçal (FGV EESP)
  • Fernando Chague (FGV EESP)
  • Flavio Augusto Ziegelmann (UFRGS)
  • Gustavo Freire (Nova SBE)
  • Gustavo Silva Araujo (BCB)
  • Henrique Castro (FGV EESP)
  • Henrique Castro Martins (FGV EAESP)
  • Jaime de Jesus Filho (FGV)
  • Jose Renato Haas Ornelas (BCB)
  • João F. Caldeira (UFSC)
  • Jéfferson Augusto Colombo (FGV EESP)
  • Klenio Barbosa (SKEMA)
  • Layla Mendes (FGV EBAPE)
  • Leandro dos Santos Maciel (FEA-USP)
  • Lucas Ayres Barreira de Campos Barros (FEA-USP)
  • Marcelo Brutti Righi (UFRGS)
  • Marcelo Fernandes (FGV EESP)
  • Marcelo Klötzle (PUC-Rio)
  • Mariana Oreng (ESPM)
  • Márcio Poletti Laurini (FEA-RP/USP)
  • Naielly Marques (PUC-Rio)
  • Paulo Renato Soares Terra (FGV EAESP)
  • Paulo Rogério Faustino de Matos (UFC)
  • Pedro A. C. Saffi (CUNEF)
  • Rafael Felipe Schiozer (FGV EAESP)
  • Rafael Matta (SKEMA)
  • Raquel de Freitas Oliveira (BCB)
  • Raul Riva (FGV EPGE)
  • Roberto Bomgiovani Cazzari (FEA-USP)
  • Rodrigo De Losso da Silveira Bueno (FEA-USP)
  • Rodrigo Leite (COPPEAD/UFRJ)
  • Ruy Monteiro Ribeiro (Insper)
  • Vinicius Augusto Brunassi Silva (FGV EESP)
  • Wilson Toshiro Nakamura (Mackenzie)
  • Yuri Fahham Saporito (FGV EMAp)