Spatial risk premia in residential real estate

  • Autor
  • Felipe Saraiva Iachan
  • Co-autores
  • Ana Paula Ruhe , Leandro Gorno
  • Resumo
  • We study spatial variation in residential real estate returns using NCREIF total return data on multifamily properties. Across cities, risk exposure to the national apartment index—measured by beta—is priced in Fama-MacBeth regressions. Within metropolitan areas, excess returns increase by 3.26 basis points per mile per quarter from the primary employment center. The distance gradient survives controls for Census 2000 neighborhood demographics, retaining 62% of its baseline magnitude. We propose an operating leverage mechanism: locations with lower rents bear proportionally higher fixed costs, amplifying their exposure to aggregate shocks. Two tests deliver restrictions consistent with the model. First, the interaction of location-level operating leverage and the consumption–wealth ratio predicts next-quarter returns (p = 0.022), with an economic magnitude of 123 basis points over the cycle; placebo interactions are insignificant. Second, a calibration maps the model-implied cap rate spread (42.8 basis points per quarter) against an observed spread of 15 basis points.

  • Palavras-chave
  • Residential real estate; Spatial heterogeneity; Risk premia; Urban economics; Real estate pricing
  • Modalidade
  • Comunicação oral
  • Área Temática
  • Apreçamento de Ativos
Voltar Download
  • Apreçamento de Ativos
  • Finanças Corporativas e Bancárias
  • Econometria Financeira
  • Engenharia Financeira
  • Macrofinanças
  • Econometria Financeira

Comissão Organizadora

  • Anderson Odias da Silva
  • Rafael Schiozer
  • Marcelo Fernandes
     

Comissão Científica

  • Alan De Genaro (FGV EAESP)
  • Allisson Martins (Universidade de Fortaleza)
  • Amanda Miranda Fantinatti (FEA-USP)
  • André de Castro Silva (Nova SBE)
  • Benjamin Miranda Tabak (FGV EPPGE)
  • Bernardo Ricca (Insper)
  • Bruno Cara Giovannetti (FGV EESP)
  • Caio Almeida (Princeton)
  • Claudia Yoshinaga (FGV EAESP)
  • Cristina Scherrer (LSE)
  • Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia (FED)
  • Eduardo Flores (FEA-USP)
  • Eduardo Horta (UFRGS)
  • Eduardo Kazuo Kayo (FEA-USP)
  • Emerson Fernandes Marçal (FGV EESP)
  • Fernando Chague (FGV EESP)
  • Flavio Augusto Ziegelmann (UFRGS)
  • Gustavo Freire (Nova SBE)
  • Gustavo Silva Araujo (BCB)
  • Henrique Castro (FGV EESP)
  • Henrique Castro Martins (FGV EAESP)
  • Jaime de Jesus Filho (FGV)
  • Jose Renato Haas Ornelas (BCB)
  • João F. Caldeira (UFSC)
  • Jéfferson Augusto Colombo (FGV EESP)
  • Klenio Barbosa (SKEMA)
  • Layla Mendes (FGV EBAPE)
  • Leandro dos Santos Maciel (FEA-USP)
  • Lucas Ayres Barreira de Campos Barros (FEA-USP)
  • Marcelo Brutti Righi (UFRGS)
  • Marcelo Fernandes (FGV EESP)
  • Marcelo Klötzle (PUC-Rio)
  • Mariana Oreng (ESPM)
  • Márcio Poletti Laurini (FEA-RP/USP)
  • Naielly Marques (PUC-Rio)
  • Paulo Renato Soares Terra (FGV EAESP)
  • Paulo Rogério Faustino de Matos (UFC)
  • Pedro A. C. Saffi (CUNEF)
  • Rafael Felipe Schiozer (FGV EAESP)
  • Rafael Matta (SKEMA)
  • Raquel de Freitas Oliveira (BCB)
  • Raul Riva (FGV EPGE)
  • Roberto Bomgiovani Cazzari (FEA-USP)
  • Rodrigo De Losso da Silveira Bueno (FEA-USP)
  • Rodrigo Leite (COPPEAD/UFRJ)
  • Ruy Monteiro Ribeiro (Insper)
  • Vinicius Augusto Brunassi Silva (FGV EESP)
  • Wilson Toshiro Nakamura (Mackenzie)
  • Yuri Fahham Saporito (FGV EMAp)