Geopolitical Risk and Sectoral Heterogeneity in the Brazilian Stock Exchange

Autor
Daniel Ferraz do Amaral de Sá Rocha
Resumo
This paper investigates the heterogeneous sensitivity of Brazilian sectoral stocks to global geopolitical shocks between 2012 and 2025. Using the GPR Threat and GPR Act indices, alongside NPDC and GIRF methodologies, the analysis focuses on the responses of the Consumption, Oil and Gas, Financial, and Non-Energy Commodity sectors. The results reveal that while geopolitical threats historically pressured returns, the post-COVID-19 period exhibits a positive cumulative impact on most sectors. These findings suggest that specific sectors in emerging markets, distant from conflict zones, can serve as strategic hedges.
Palavras-chave
Geopolitical Risk, Brazilian Stock Exchange, GIRF and Connectedness.
Modalidade
Comunicação oral
Área Temática
Macrofinanças

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Referência

ROCHA, Daniel Ferraz do Amaral de Sá. Geopolitical Risk and Sectoral Heterogeneity in the Brazilian Stock Exchange. In: XXVI Encontro Brasileiro de Finanças - Universidade de Fortaleza (Unifor)| Fortaleza, Ceará, 2026. Disponível em: <https://doity.com.br/anais/26ebfin/trabalho/516341>. Acesso em: 30/08/2026 às 21:51

Apreçamento de Ativos
Finanças Corporativas e Bancárias
Econometria Financeira
Engenharia Financeira
Macrofinanças
Econometria Financeira

Comissão Organizadora

Anderson Odias da Silva
Rafael Schiozer
Marcelo Fernandes

Comissão Científica

Alan De Genaro (FGV EAESP)
Allisson Martins (Universidade de Fortaleza)
Amanda Miranda Fantinatti (FEA-USP)
André de Castro Silva (Nova SBE)
Benjamin Miranda Tabak (FGV EPPGE)
Bernardo Ricca (Insper)
Bruno Cara Giovannetti (FGV EESP)
Caio Almeida (Princeton)
Claudia Yoshinaga (FGV EAESP)
Cristina Scherrer (LSE)
Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia (FED)
Eduardo Flores (FEA-USP)
Eduardo Horta (UFRGS)
Eduardo Kazuo Kayo (FEA-USP)
Emerson Fernandes Marçal (FGV EESP)
Fernando Chague (FGV EESP)
Flavio Augusto Ziegelmann (UFRGS)
Gustavo Freire (Nova SBE)
Gustavo Silva Araujo (BCB)
Henrique Castro (FGV EESP)
Henrique Castro Martins (FGV EAESP)
Jaime de Jesus Filho (FGV)
Jose Renato Haas Ornelas (BCB)
João F. Caldeira (UFSC)
Jéfferson Augusto Colombo (FGV EESP)
Klenio Barbosa (SKEMA)
Layla Mendes (FGV EBAPE)
Leandro dos Santos Maciel (FEA-USP)
Lucas Ayres Barreira de Campos Barros (FEA-USP)
Marcelo Brutti Righi (UFRGS)
Marcelo Fernandes (FGV EESP)
Marcelo Klötzle (PUC-Rio)
Mariana Oreng (ESPM)
Márcio Poletti Laurini (FEA-RP/USP)
Naielly Marques (PUC-Rio)
Paulo Renato Soares Terra (FGV EAESP)
Paulo Rogério Faustino de Matos (UFC)
Pedro A. C. Saffi (CUNEF)
Rafael Felipe Schiozer (FGV EAESP)
Rafael Matta (SKEMA)
Raquel de Freitas Oliveira (BCB)
Raul Riva (FGV EPGE)
Roberto Bomgiovani Cazzari (FEA-USP)
Rodrigo De Losso da Silveira Bueno (FEA-USP)
Rodrigo Leite (COPPEAD/UFRJ)
Ruy Monteiro Ribeiro (Insper)
Vinicius Augusto Brunassi Silva (FGV EESP)
Wilson Toshiro Nakamura (Mackenzie)
Yuri Fahham Saporito (FGV EMAp)