As nations and industries pivot towards renewable energy sources, electric mobility, and green infrastructures, the demand for metals is expected to surge to unprecedented levels. This article relies on the theoretical modelling of metal markets in the long term to simulate the potential impacts of energy transitions policies on the price dynamics of copper on global markets. We use a framework based on the Cumulative Availability Curve (CAC) approach and incorporate demand-side factors such as the level of development and green transition goals. Results suggest that a) energy transition policies, especially those aiming for net-zero emissions, frontload the surge in demand for copper, yet b) over the next few decades the world demand for copper could also be driven by the unimpeded economic growth outside of energy transition considerations in major demographic regions, and c) around 2050, the world price of copper is expected to be quite comparable in both scenarios, and high by historical standards. In summary, this suggests that the sustainability of the demand for copper may be preserved although at a high price. Recycling and/or technological progress hold the potential to mitigate these sharp price increases.
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