How carbon neutrality may reshape energy security concerns weighs greatly for all major energy importing countries, including China. Large-scale electrification and energy transition as a crucial pathway will potentially alter the strategic importance of different resources. This study examines three key battery-related metals – lithium, cobalt, nickel – in China’s carbon-neutral future by calculating their foreign dependency ratios and import costs and then compare them with those of crude oil, natural gas, and uranium. Scenario analysis shows that China’s foreign dependency of the metals could exceed 80% in many scenarios in 2030 and 2050 with import costs likely reaching USD 135 billion in 2030 and USD 265 billion in 2050. Their strategic importance in 2050 represented by their import costs can be equivalent to the 2016-2020 average level of oil and natural gas, if unfavorable conditions happen simultaneously, specifically high metal intensity, low recycling rates, and high metal prices. Hence for China, carbon neutrality might replace conventional energy security concerns about oil and natural gas with new concerns about battery-related metals, especially considering the much higher geographic concentration of metal imports. However, we find that recycling is the most important factor in reducing overseas reliance and import costs of the metals. In low-demand scenarios with optimistic recycling rates, their foreign dependency could be substantially reduced or even completely alleviated, indicating that efficient and large-scale recycling of end-of-life batteries has great potential to strengthen energy security and reduce the monetary costs in China’s carbon-neutral future.
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