Green hydrogen (GH2) has emerged as a pivotal component in the global effort to combat climate change and enhance energy security. This is particularly significant for Brazil, a potential global leader in GH2 production and a major exporter to European markets, notably Germany. This paper aims to formulate comprehensive GH2 production scenarios for Brazil over the upcoming decades. Employing the system dynamics model, inspired by the Bass diffusion theory, the study explores the nuanced adoption process of GH2, taking into account the intricate dynamics of internal and external communication. The Bass model, grounded in innovation and social contagion coefficients, forms the mathematical framework for scenario construction. Stella Architect by Isee Systems serves as the simulation tool to unravel the potential trajectories. The results unravel an exponential growth trajectory in GH2 production, projecting an annual output ranging from 3 to 10 million tons by the year 2040. The concurrent growth in the capacity of H2 in Ammonia and electrolizer installations introduces a compelling narrative, presenting both opportunities and potential challenges, such as the risk of overshooting. Beyond the production spectrum, national consumption of GH2 remains marginal, underscoring the imperative for well-crafted policies. These policies should strategically address electrolizer demand, ensure secure domestic consumption of GH2, and foster the expansion of GH2 exports to European markets, where Germany stands as a significant player. While the exact costs and economic feasibility await further clarification, this study emphasizes the paramount importance of policies that not only safeguard the low-carbon advantages of GH2 but also actively engage domestic industries to optimize the country's potential in the GH2 landscape. In conclusion, this study contributes valuable insights to policymakers, industries, and researchers navigating the evolving landscape of GH2 production, consumption, and export in Brazil's dynamic energy sector. The multifaceted analysis incorporates various dimensions, from technological advancements and production scalability to consumption patterns and export potential, providing a holistic understanding of the intricate web of factors shaping Brazil's role in the global GH2 landscape. We acknowledge the roots of this paper in a research project funded by DAAD and GIZ under the "German-Brazilian research cooperation in the energy sector – NoPa 2.0/cooperation in the areas of green hydrogen/PtX, direct electrification, and energy storage".
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