This study examines the relationship between natural gas prices, climate factors, and electricity prices in Germany, with a focus on the impact of Europe's climate variability and geopolitical issues such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict on energy security and price stability. The research employs a quantitative approach, utilizing the Generalized Autoregressive Scoring (GAS) model and quantile regression to analyze the dynamics of energy prices and their interactions with exogenous variables. The analysis aims to reveal the substantial correlation between natural gas prices and electricity prices, highlighting the significant influence of supply disruptions and political restrictions on gas imports. Additionally, the study explores the mitigating effect of renewable energy sources on electricity price increases and the continued reliance of the German electricity market on natural gas prices. The research provides valuable insights for policymakers and energy market stakeholders in understanding the energy transition and ensuring a stable and sustainable energy supply.
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