The study adopts a hybrid top-down/bottom-up approach to estimate the energy conservation potential in the Brazilian industry until 2050. The research highlights the increasing importance of issues related to energy transition and climate change, evident in global conferences such as COP. On the national level, the industrial sector, responsible for 32.3% of total energy consumption, is identified as crucial for efficiency improvements, as indicated by the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan.
Energy efficiency is presented as a prioritized resource to meet the growing demand for energy. The implementation of innovative industrial technologies for consumption reduction not only enhances productivity but also reduces operational costs, increases reliability, and contributes to emissions reduction, improving working conditions.
The methodology adopted in this study combines top-down and bottom-up approch, allowing for a comprehensive analysis of energy consumption and variations in scenarios. Top-down models provide a macroeconomic view, while bottom-up models offer detailed modeling considering the hierarchy of industrial segments. The primary focus is on thermal energy in the Brazilian industry.
The considered scenarios encompass different macroeconomic perspectives, levels of technological diffusion, and efficiency, resulting in a flexible and comprehensive scenario tree. The analysis extends until 2050, considering the implementation of public policies and specific programs.
The results indicate that with the implementation of three cross-cutting policies, the energy conservation potential in the industry until 2050 is estimated at 673 ktep. Introducing an additional policy related to thermal energy, this number can increase to 2,989 ktep. Model validation compared to official results demonstrates consistency in the calculated values.
The study highlights not only the potential for energy conservation but also the importance of considering diverse perspectives in crafting efficient strategies. The hybrid model is pointed out as a tool to guide public policies and energy efficiency programs, contributing to a sustainable and economic transition in the Brazilian industry.
In summary, this study represents a significant effort to understand and quantify the potential for energy efficiency in the Brazilian industry, providing insights for policymakers and stakeholders seeking sustainable strategies.
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