Brazil, given a global scenario of concern with climate change, has been increasing the use of renewable energy, especially solar energy in the last years. With the growth in its participation, the characteristics of solar energy, such as intermittence and random fluctuations, have been affecting the operation planning of the Brazilian Electricity System (BES). Such factors can be studied with time series modeling, helping the planning of power plants and BES. In order to contribute to the factor analysis, the objective of this research is to analyze the characteristics of photovoltaic energy generation in the meteorological seasons of the year in two regions of Brazil with different solar incidences. For this, a methodology based on Markov Chain concepts is applied. The research presents relevant differences from the literature, such as the subdivision of the time series by meteorological seasons, the use of data not yet studied and a detailed presentation of the methodology and results, with demonstration of the main parts of the code used in the programming language R®. The objective of the research was successfully achieved, making evident the differences between the solar energy generation models between the meteorological seasons and the two regions studied. Thus, the research approach based on the subdivision and the comparison between seasons and regions showed to be valid.
Complete tool for submission, evaluation and publication of proceedings for scientific events.
