In this work, we developed estimates of the supply and demand of biomass-based energy in Brazil. This type of energy is receiving increasing attention due to its benefits in terms of sustainability and trade balance. We applied time series analysis to forecast demand based on historical data. The energy potential was estimated based on agricultural, livestock, urban solid waste and forestry production. The projections indicate that the demand in 2032 will reach 78 million tons of oil equivalent, which is around 17% of the 457 million tons of national energy potential based on the production of 2022, or 22% of the upper bound considering a 95% confidence interval. The results show a significant gap between the projected use and the potential supply of this type of energy in the country. A national energy planning aimed at exploring this gap, while considering its effects with respect to inputs, costs and other uses, may lead to a higher share of alternative energy sources, better diversification and improved efficiency.
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