Although the biomethane market is still in its infancy in Brazil, it has been growing rapidly. Some forecasts indicate that biomethane production in Brazil is expected to grow exponentially over the next few years. Some projections indicate that biomenthane production in Brazil is expected to grow exponentially over the next few years. This will occur through the exploration of Brazil's great biomethane potential, in particular through the use of sugar cane wastes. However, ethanol plants are located in the countryside of Brazil, in regions with low natural gas demand. Furthermore, Brazil's natural gas transport infrastructure is poorly developed and concentrated on the coastline, making it difficult to transport biomethane to consumer centers. This demand restriction could limit the development of the biomethane market in Brazil, contradicting the current forecasts. Therefore, this paper aims to estimate the biomethane potential from the sugar cane waste, in order to identify whether this potential is found in regions with low demand for natural gas. Furthermore, this paper seeks to develop, in a simplified way, a strategy for connecting the biomethane potential to the interconnected gas pipelines network, aiming at the development of the biomethane market in Brazil. Our estimates point to a biomethane potential from sugar cane waste of 17.2 MMcm/d. We identified that 82% (or 14.2 MMm3/d) of this potential is located in regions with low demand for natural gas, especially in the concession areas of Nectagás, Goisgás, MTgás, MSgás and Gasmig (Triângulo Mineiro and Alto Paranaíba). As a comparison, in 2023, natural gas consumption was 1.3 MMcm/d in the same area. In other words, only a small part of Brazil's biomethane potential could be consumed locally. Therefore, the main conclusion of this paper is that, if biomethane production is not connected to the interconnected gas pipeline network, the result will be an insignificant development of the biomethane market in Brazil, far below current forecasts. This is because the development of biomethane potential would not involve its commercialization in the Brazilian market, but rather through the self-consumption of biomethane in sugarcane plantations (being limited by the low demand) or through the use of biogas to power generate (without the production of biomethane). In this way, it is necessary to develop a strategy that allows this connection. This paper proposes “Biomethane Injection Hub” strategy. This strategy consists of building connecting gas pipelines that would depart from GASBOL towards biomethane production centers in the countryside. This connecting gas pipeline would have several entry points along its route. In this way, biomethane producers would transport their production through BioCNG and BioLNG and inject it into the connecting pipeline.
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