This work aims to provide an accurate estimation of Brazilian national power system's pollution. For that I employ an estimation approach called Marginal Emissions Factor (MEF). This empirical framework takes into account a key feature of the power market design, which is the Merit-Order of dispatch. The energy demanded in a given power system is supplied according to the costs of each power source. The first plants dispatched are those with the smallest costs ("cheapest runs first"). When these plants are at full capacity the next cheapest is called into action. This, however, have not only cost effects but also pollution consequences. As we are ascending the cost curve, the technologies become more and more pollutant. This design gives the power system a dynamic characteristic regarding its emissions meaning that how "dirty" a system is depends on a timely basis. The MEF analysis is able to capture this feature as it relates the hourly emissions to the amount of power generated. With a time series and a fixed effects empirical approach i I am able to provide accurate estimations of brazilian energy market pollution. The outcomes of this work will serve as a policy-guiding tool to evaluate the GHG emissions at the national level. On top of that, it will be capable to offer counterfactual figures for any public policy that shifts the merit-order curve, providing figures concerning the many possible emissions scenarios.
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