Within the Paris Agreement goal to stabilize global warming to 1.5ºC/2ºC by the end of the century, the aviation sector in Brazil announced the goal of decarbonizing by 2050 (ANAC, 2022). Through the Fuel of the Future Program, the country highlights the role of sustainable aviation fuels made from biomass (bioSAF) such as sugarcane, soybean, and other alternative feedstocks that could be used in Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) and Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) production routes. However, other bioenergy policies also consider Brazil’s potential to provide biofuels, for example, policies to decarbonize maritime and road transportation (CEBRI, 2023). Thus, the overlapping demand for bioenergy resources might be considerable and increase the demand for land to cultivate sugarcane and soybean as feedstocks. With this, potential land use change (LUC) should be assessed to fully address decarbonization, as its emissions can be higher than those from fossil fuel burning (Fargione et al., 2008). However, releasing land through intensification of agriculture may avoid native vegetation suppression, which is the LUC with highest emissions. This study estimates the release of pastureland for bioSAF production in Brazil by 2050 and the LUC emissions for different regions in the country. Using projected demand for agricultural commodities (Fiorini et al., 2023) together with productivity data (IBGE, 2022), the total agricultural land for Brazil in 2050 was estimated. By designing scenarios of an improved cattle stocking density from 1.4 animal/ha to 2.0 animal/ha, pasture surplus area was estimated for agricultural expansion and for energy crops, without the need for native vegetation suppression. With the available land, bioSAF production was estimated using data from CORSIA (2022) and CONAB (2023). Direct LUC emissions were calculated using BRLUC data (2021). Results show that without raising the stocking density for cattle, there will be no pasture surplus area available for bioenergy. Considering a stocking density of 2.0 animal/ha, pasture surplus area for biofuels varies between 2.6 and 27 Mha, depending on how productive food crops are. If sugarcane is cultivated for AtJ in this surplus area, it can deliver between 260 and 2,676 PJ, meeting at least 49% of projected demand for jet fuel. Considering carbon stocks for planted pasture and sugarcane in the most likely regions to have such expansion, LUC emissions range from -3 to 6 gCO2/MJ but could be larger in other regions. Producing low carbon AtJ from Brazilian sugarcane to meet the country’s jet fuel demand by 2050 is possible but requires coordinated actions to improve both cattle and food systems productivity.
