The macroeconomic effects of carbon pricing at a subnational level: evidence from California's cap and trade

  • Author
  • Tomás Baioni
  • Abstract
  • This paper addresses the macroeconomic effects of subnational carbon pricing initiatives, focusing on California's cap and trade. Using high-frequency data and regulatory news, I construct a carbon policy surprise series to understand the aggregate effects of a carbon policy shock using impulse response functions from a SVAR model. Results suggest that a shock tightening the carbon pricing regime leads to an immediate significant reduction in carbon emissions by 0.05%, albeit this reduction in emissions comes at the expense of an immediate temporary fall in economic activity by 0.01%. On the other hand, results suggest that increasing carbon prices do not transmit to either household energy prices or consumer prices. Likewise, estimations suggest that a positive shock to carbon prices decreases the monetary policy rate and increases unemployment, albeit not statistically significant at the 10\%. I resort to local projections as robustness checks and find that the prior conclusions hold, i.e., that the California's cap and trade initiative has significant macroeconomic effects.

  • Keywords
  • Carbon pricing, SVAR, carbon policy surprise
  • Modality
  • Comunicação oral
  • Subject Area
  • Country studies
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  • Oil and Gas Markets and Investments
  • Energy Security and Geopolitics
  • Electricity markets
  • Energy and finance
  • Energy demand
  • Country studies
  • Energy and society
  • Energy Policy and Regulation
  • Climate Change: mitigation and adaptation
  • Disruptive innovation and energy transition
  • Energy and macroeconomics
  • Local governments
  • System integration
  • Energy and transport
  • Regional energy integration
  • LNG Markets in Latam
  • Social Dimensions of Energy Transition
  • Variable Renewable Energies
  • Distributed Energy Resources
  • System Integration, Energy Networks and Resilience
  • Energy Investment and Finance
  • Energy Market Design
  • Technology, Innovation and Policies
  • Low Carbon Hydrogen
  • Bioenergy and Biofuels
  • Energy and Development
  • New Supply Chains
  • Future of Utilities
  • Energy Efficiency
  • Energy Modeling
  • Energy and Macroeconomics
  • Energy Subsidies
  • Transportation and (e-) mobility
  • Nuclear Energy in Latam